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|CONTEXT OF FINANCIAL PANIC AND CORNOAVIRUS FEAR CYCLESThe Confluence of the 18.5, and 33-38 Year Cycles in 2020-21|
By Barry RosenWith the stock market going wildly lower over the weekend and oil falling out of bed because the Saudis and Russia cannot agree, we are having more Black Swann events. Russia says they can survive for 10 years at 25.00 a barrel and the Saudis can produce oil in the single dollar region. The good news is cheap gas prices for a while and a lot of pressure on the fracking industry to have huge economic challenges. This means lay-offs and shut-downs and they have huge debt that needs prices at 50.00 or more to survive. It’s good for the environment but it is the type of change that these larger cycles produce.
There is a larger cycle at work that happens about every 33-38 years. In Oct. 1914, we had the outbreak of World War 1 and dissolution of the Russian monarchy and the rise of Communist Russia. With the ½ cycle period in opposition in 1929-31, we had the Great Depression. In 1947 after the end of World War 2 we had this cycle and the International Monetary Fund was created to end global poverty and the Breton Wood Agreement was drawn up creating and bring great financial power to the US and the US banking system. Also, in 1947, we had Pakistan breaking away fro India and forming two separate countries that are still at odds and also the creation of Israel out of Palestine and that region is still quite at odds. With the return of Saturn/Pluto again, these difficult areas are likely to go through more upheaval.
In 1982 we had this cycle and the AIDs crisis and we the escalation of the cold war with Russian and the bottom of the US stock market after higher unemployment and an economic recession hit.
What does 2020-21 hold for us? You can see with the Coronavirus and changes in supply chains and fewer people going to work those global economics will be impacted. More political change will erupt as we are seeing Turkey and Syria square off again but Russia is getting involved. With the history of global economic change, the social-political environment will continue to move toward more social policies and movement and a move toward Medicare for all and all the social welfare programs that he espouses?
History would suggest something bigger has to happen and this cycle is always a work to bring up the unconscious way we are treating our planet and our people and to create a black swan event so that we can look at it straight in the face and do something about it. The latest plunge in oil and impact on the fracking industry is just one event but there will be further ramifications as the world has been printing money and has not really addressed the issues of the last economic meltdown and its lessons from 2009-12. Saturn/Pluto will take no prisoners. Not great for the US stock market and pension funds.