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Our Analysts Discuss “The Big Picture”

By John Persinos

Our investment experts are spread around the country and hail from diverse backgrounds and experiences. They’re smart, opinionated and hopelessly overeducated.

But despite each person’s fierce individuality, our team of analysts all have one thing in common: superb track records at making their followers money. Lots of money.

As the fourth quarter winds down and we face the start of 2020, I decided that this week would be an opportune time to provide a sampling of their latest views. Let’s see what they have to say. The copy in bold represents my questions.

Jim Pearce, chief investment strategist, Personal Finance.
How do you think the stock market will fare in the final days of December?

On the surface, the stock market looks solid heading into the all-important holiday shopping season. Through the first 10 months of the year, the S&P 500 Index gained 21.2%. That’s considerably better than last year’s 6.2% loss.

In fact, if the index ended the year at that level it would be its best result since 2013 when it gained nearly 30%.

But dig a little deeper, and a troubling pattern is emerging. Over the first six months of the year, the index gained 18%. Since then, it has only added on another 3%. Over the past six months, it has gone through three mini-corrections, each successively shorter in time and smaller in amplitude than the one before it.

Stock market technicians sometimes refer to this phenomenon as a “corkscrew” trading formation due to its coil shape. More often than not, this type of pattern ends in a violent movement one way or the other based on a triggering event. In this case, I suspect holiday sales will determine which direction it will go.

Steve Leeb, chief investment strategist, The Complete Investor and Real World Investing.
The Sino-American trade war makes little sense, with no end in sight. Who’s winning, if you can use that word?

You are right that the trade war makes little sense. It’s not an effective approach to dealing with China or to improving America’s economy or trade position. Quite the opposite.

Even if you accept that narrowing the trade deficit is a meaningful goal, and it’s not, tariffs haven’t accomplished that. In the first nine months of this year, the trade deficit, counting both goods and services, rose by 5.4% compared to the same period in 2018.

That’s not surprising, since the tariffs do nothing to alter an underlying cause of the trade deficit: the fact that the dollar, as the world’s chief reserve currency, is chronically overvalued, making our exports more expensive.

In addition, the uncertainty about the duration and outcome of the trade conflict has made U.S. companies hold back from new investments. There really has been nothing positive about the trade war, and I doubt whether China ultimately will make the kinds of concessions that might conceivably have made it worthwhile.

Scott Chan, lead analyst, Real World Investing and The Complete Investor.
One of the key areas of competition between the U.S. and China is the global roll-out of 5G, the next generation of wireless technology. The stakes are enormous. Which country has the lead and why?

China has the lead right now. Chinese companies like Huawei are leading 5G equipment suppliers. By contrast, there is no major U.S. 5G equipment supplier. U.S. companies will have to rely on the likes of Nokia and Ericsson. Also, China looks like it will be the first to roll out a nationwide 5G network.

In the market-driven economy of the U.S., profits can get in the way of innovation. For example, tech heavyweights like Qualcomm and Intel are waging an expensive fight over patents. Additionally, according to the Pentagon, a big obstacle to the rollout of 5G in the U.S. is…itself.

Robert Rapier, chief investment strategist, Utility Forecaster.
Under current conditions, which sub-sectors of the energy industry offer the greatest investment opportunities?

U.S. oil production has surged over the past decade, but U.S. oil producers have fared poorly. That’s because they keep pushing production ahead of demand growth. They haven’t been in a position to profit from this production surge, because there are too many producers eroding margins. The same is true in the U.S. natural gas industry.

Pipeline companies have fared much better. All that new oil, natural gas, and NGL production has to get from the field to the consumer. The pipeline companies make this happen, and to do so they sign up producers to long-term contracts. That’s what makes them such good long-term investments.

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Nathan Slaughter, chief investment strategist, The Daily Paycheck and High-Yield Investing.
Which sectors look the most appealing to you right now?

Given earnings headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty, and the generally overvalued state of the market as a whole, I would dial back exposure to more cyclical areas in favor of defensive sectors.

This could be a favorable climate for utilities. I am also overweight real estate investment trusts (REITs).

Real estate has a low correlation to traditional equities, and property owners tend to have strong cash flow visibility. The prospect of cheaper borrowing costs sure doesn’t hurt either.

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Jimmy Butts, chief investment strategist, Maximum Profit.
Investors are rotating from growth to value. Which reasonably priced “defensive” asset classes do you recommend as we head into 2020?

I’m glad you said, “reasonably priced,” because the usual defensive suspects have been on a tear this year.

Many of the utilities stocks I’ve looked at recently are trading at premiums to their historical valuation norms.

For reasonably valued stocks in the utility sector, click here for our “dividend map.”

Of course, as a momentum investor looking to ride those waves that’s not necessarily a bad thing. As we know, stock prices can climb higher, for longer, than what we might believe.

If you’re looking to capture a quick gain, you could ride the waves that are being provided by many of these more traditional defensive classes.

Derek Myers, analyst, Jim Fink’s Inner Circle
Market volatility has increased in December and that makes many investors afraid. But why is volatility an options trader’s friend?

Volatility brings about opportunities that can make or break investors. That’s were strategy and discipline come into play.

Volatility iss baaaack.

To be honest, I really don’t care if volatility is high or low. As an options trader, I can adjust the option strategies to account for what volatility is doing or is expected to do.

For example, if volatility is high and is expected to drop, this is the perfect time to sell options because it allows the options trader to collect a much bigger credit which ultimately reduces the overall risk. Additionally, as volatility decreases, so too will the options I sold. When selling options this is the ideal situation.

Amber Hestla, chief investment strategist, Income Trader, Profit Amplifier, Maximum Income, and Precision Pot Trader.
As 2019 winds to a close, how should investors position their portfolios for 2020?

Into the end of 2019, be aggressive. We will see how long it lasts but expect a strong rally for at least the next few months. For the past year or so, large-cap stocks have been the biggest winners. I’m watching for small caps to catch up in the coming months. Many of these stocks are cheap and many are showing bullish chart patterns.

Because I believe sentiment drives market action, I like new ideas. Investors tend to get excited about new things, such as marijuana stocks.

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Legalization is changing the marijuana industry and we already know this is a product with a long history of demand. It’s funny in a way but maybe a dozen years ago, I was working in law enforcement and involved in shutting down marijuana operations. I changed with the times and other investors are changing. That’s bullish.

Jim Fink, chief investment strategist, Options for Income, Velocity Trader, and Jim Fink’s Inner Circle.
I’ve heard you say that your strategies allow investors to “buy stock at a discount.” Please elaborate.

An investor can sell puts for income. The main difference between put selling and call selling is that put selling is typically done at strike prices below the current stock price rather than above it.

In addition, you don’t need to own the stock beforehand when selling puts as you do when selling covered calls. Lastly, the put seller is capitalizing on the fear of the put buyer as opposed to the greed of the call buyer.

Greed and fear are the two primary emotions of the stock market and option sellers can take advantage of both extremes. The concept of both types of option selling strategies is similar: selling the rights to unlikely price moves in exchange for cash up front.

Put selling is another way to create monthly dividend-like income. Furthermore, just as selling calls allows an investor to sell a stock at a premium to a limit order, selling puts allows you to buy a stock at a discount to a limit order.

For example, if you think your stock would be undervalued at $20, rather than set a limit order to buy the stock at $20, sell a $20 put option for, let’s say, $1.

Then, if the stock falls below $20 at option expiration, the put option will be exercised and you will be required to buy it from the put owner for $20. Combined with the $1 you initially received for selling the put, your net purchase price is $19, 5% lower than you would have paid by means of a simple limit order at $20.

Editor’s Note: In the above interview, I only scratched the surface of the investment acumen of our advisors. A colleague who deserves a particularly close look right now is Jim Fink.

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John Persinos is the managing editor of Investing Daily.

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